An Analysis of Harry Brown - 813 Words

Gangsterism is typically defined as the culture of gangs. A definition of what is a gang varies from countries to countries. However, usually gang is attributed to criminal street gang or neighborhood-based street gangs. They are composed of teenagers ranging from ages to 16 to 21 years old. Also, they are commonly involved in many crimes such as armed robbery, assault, auto theft, trafficking, fraud, murder, etc. Because of these behavioral acts among the gangs, they are generally considered to be criminals or deviant by most of the society. Moreover, gangs are drug distributors. They are used by drug syndicate to deliver illegal drugs such as the marijuana or cocaine or they even become users of it. The world of gangsterism is definitely a harsh and dangerous one. But, how come that there are teenagers who are attracted to join a gang? Why would they choose to be in a group where they have no future at all? There are many reasons why these people choose to be this way. 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Demand Forecasting and Production Planning Free Essays

string(51) " bottleneck stage due to its long processing time\." ScienceAsia 27 (2001) : 271-278 Demand Forecasting and Production Planning for Highly Seasonal Demand Situations: Case Study of a Pressure Container Factory Pisal Yenradeea,*, Anulark Pinnoib and Amnaj Charoenthavornyingb a Industrial Engineering Program, Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University, Patumtani 12121, Thailand. b Industrial Systems Engineering Program, School of Advanced Technologies, Asian Institute of Technology, P. O. We will write a custom essay sample on Demand Forecasting and Production Planning or any similar topic only for you Order Now Box 4, Klong Luang, Patumtani 12120, Thailand. * Corresponding author, E-mail: pisal@siit. tu. ac. th Received 24 May 2001 Accepted 27 Jul 2001 ABSTRACT This paper addresses demand forecasting and production planning for a pressure container factory in Thailand, where the demand patterns of individual product groups are highly seasonal. Three forecasting models, namely, Winter’s, decomposition, and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), are applied to forecast the product demands. The results are compared with those obtained by subjective and intuitive judgements (which is the current practice). It is found that the decomposition and ARIMA models provide lower forecast errors in all product groups. As a result, the safety stock calculated based on the errors of these two models is considerably less than that of the current practice. The forecasted demand and safety stock are subsequently used as inputs to determine the production plan that minimizes the total overtime and inventory holding costs based on a fixed workforce level and an available overtime. The production planning problem is formulated as a linear programming model whose decision variables include production quantities, inventory levels, and overtime requirements. The results reveal that the total costs could be reduced by 13. % when appropriate forecasting models are applied in place of the current practice. KEYWORDS: demand forecasting, highly seasonal demand, ARIMA method, production planning, linear programming, pressure container factory. INTRODUCTION Most manufacturing companies in developing countries determine product demand forecasts and production plans using subjective and intuitive judgments. This may be one factor that leads to production inefficiency. An accuracy of the demand forecast significantly affects safety stock and inventory levels, inventory holding costs, and customer service levels. When the demand is highly seasonal, it is unlikely that an accurate forecast can be obtained without the use of an appropriate forecasting model. The demand forecast is one among several critical inputs of a production planning process. When the forecast is inaccurate, the obtained production plan will be unreliable, and may result in over- or understock problems. To avoid them, a suitable amount of safety stock must be provided, which requires additional investment in inventory and results in an increased inventory holding costs. In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, systematic demand forecasting and production planning methods are proposed in this paper. A case study of a pressure container factory in Thailand is presented to demonstrate how the methods can be developed and implemented. This study illustrates that an improvement of demand forecasts and a reduction of total production costs can be achieved when the systematic demand forecasting and production planning methods are applied. The demand forecasting and production planning methods are proposed in the next section. The background of the case study, including, products, production process, and the forecasting and production planning procedures being used in the factory, are briefly described in Section 3. The detailed analyses of the forecasting methods and the production planning method are explained in Section 4 and Section 5, respectively. Finally, the discussion and conclusion are presented in Section 6. 272 ScienceAsia 27 (2001) P ROPOSED D EMAND F ORECASTING PRODUCTION PLANNING METHODS AND The proposed demand forecasting and production planning methods are depicted in a step-by-step fashion in Fig. . Most factories produce a variety of products that can be categorized into product groups or families. Individual products in the same product group generally have some common characteristics. For example, they may have the same demand pattern and a relatively stable product mix. As a result, it is possible to forecast the aggregate demand of the product group first, and then disaggregate it in to the demand of individual products. Since the forecast of the aggregate demand is more accurate than that of the individual demand1, it is initially determined in Step 1. Then the demands of individual products are determined in Step 2 by multiplying the aggregate demand with the corresponding product mix that is normally known and quite constant. Since the demand forecasts are always subject to forecast errors, safety stocks are provided to avoid stock-out problems. Based on the standard deviation of the forecast errors and the required service level, the safety stocks for individual products are determined in Step 3. Production planning decisions are so complicated and important that they should not be subjectively and intuitively made. Consequently, an appropriate production planning model should be formulated to determine the optimal decisions. With this model, its parameters, eg, demand forecasts, safety stocks, holding cost, overtime cost, machine capacity, inventory capacity, and available regular time and overtime, are entered or updated (Step 4). In step 5, the optimal decisions regarding the production quantities, inventory levels, and regular production time and overtime for each product in each production stage are obtained by solving the production planning model. Step 6 indicates that only the optimal production plan of the current month will be implemented. After one month has elapsed, the demand forecasts and the production plan will be revised (by repeating Steps 1 to 5) according to a rolling horizon concept. BACKGROUND OF THE CASE STUDY The pressure container factory manufactures 15 products, ranging from 1. 25 to 50 kg of the capacity of pressurized gas. The products are divided into eight product groups, namely, Group 1 to Group 8. The first six groups have only two components, â€Å"head† and â€Å"bottom†, while the last two groups have three components, â€Å"head†, â€Å"bottom†, and â€Å"body†. The production process can be divided into five stages as shown in Fig. 2. Stage 3 is only required to produce the products having three components (ie, those in Groups 7 and 8). Stage 4, the circumference welding, is found to be a bottleneck stage due to its long processing time. You read "Demand Forecasting and Production Planning" in category "Papers" Presently monthly demand forecasts are subjectively determined by the Marketing Department based on past sales and expected future market conditions. No systematic method is used in forecasting. Using these forecasts and other constraints, such as availability of raw materials, equipment, and production capacity, the monthly production plan for a three-month period is intuitively determined without considering any cost factor. This results in inaccurate demand forecasts and, subsequently, an inefficient production plan. Stage 1 Blanking 1) Forecast the monthly demands of each product group throughout the planning horizon of 12 months 2) Determine the demand for each individual product 3) Determine the safety stock for each individual product Stage 2 Forming of bottom and head Stage 3 Forming of body 4) Update the parameters in the production planning model Stage 4 Circumference welding 5) Run the planning model to obtain the optimal planning dicisions ) Roll the plan by repeating Steps 1 to 5 after one month has elapsed Stage 5 Finishing Fig 1. Proposed forecasting and planning steps. Fig 2. The production process to manufacture a pressure container. ScienceAsia 27 (2001) 273 FORECASTING METHODS Steps 1, 2, and 3 of the proposed forecasting and planning process are discussed in detail in this section. Firstly, the aggregate demand forecasts of eight product groups throughout the planning horizon of 12 mont hs will be determined. Secondly, the demand forecasts of the product groups will be disaggregated into those of individual product. Thirdly, the safety stocks of individual product will be calculated based on the forecast error. Aggregate Demand Forecasts of Product Groups The typical demand pattern of each product group is seasonal. As an example, Fig. 3 shows the demand pattern of Product Group 3. Thus, three forecasting models that are suitable for making seasonal demand forecasts are considered. They are Winter’s, decomposition and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. 2-5 Because of their simplicity, the Winter’s and decomposition models are initially used to forecast the aggregate demand of each product group. If the Winter’s and decomposition models are inadequate (ie, the forecast errors are not random), the ARIMA model which is more complicated and perhaps more efficient will be applied. The Winter’s model has three smoothing parameters that significantly affect the accuracy of the forecasts. These parameters are varied at many levels using a computer program to determine a set of parameters that give the least forecast errors. There are two types of the decomposition model, namely, multiplicative and additive types. The former is selected since the demand pattern shows that the trend and seasonal components are dependent. The forecast errors of the Winter’s and decomposition models are presented in Table 1. Based on the calculated mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), it is seen that the decomposition model has lower Original Series (x 1000) 16 forecast errors in all product groups than the Winter’s model. Thus, it is reasonable to conclude that the decomposition model provides better demand forecasts than the other. One way to check whether the forecasting model is adequate is to evaluate the randomness of the forecast errors. The auto-correlation coefficient functions (ACFs) of the errors from the decomposition model for several time lags at the significant level of 0. 05 of each product group are determined. The ACFs of Groups 1 and 3 are presented as examples in Fig. 4 and 5, respectively. The ACFs of Groups 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 are similar to those of Group 1 in Table 1. Forecast errors of the Winter’s and decomposition models. MSE Products MAPE (%) Winter’s Decomposition Winter’s Decomposition 9,879,330 4,363,290 2,227,592 4,507,990 10,039,690 574,108 636,755 883,811 36. 14 48. 94 24. 25 30. 08 18. 80 53. 86 61. 99 46. 52 26. 97 31. 86 15. 97 23. 4 13. 14 34. 80 34. 45 28. 76 Group 1 16,855,149 Group 2 8,485,892 Group 3 5,433,666 Group 4 6,035,466 Group 5 23,030,657 Group 6 1,690,763 Group 7 2,034,917 Group 8 1,884,353 Estimated Autocorrelations 1 0. 5 coefficient 0 -0. 5 -1 0 4 8 lag 12 16 20 Fig 4. ACFs of the residuals from the decomposition model for Group 1. Estimated Autocorrel ations 1 0. 5 16 demand 3 coefficient 0 8 -0. 5 4 -1 0 0 10 20 30 time index 40 50 60 0 4 8 lag 12 16 20 Fig 3. Actual demand of Group 3. Fig 5. ACFs of the residuals from the decomposition model for Group 3. 274 ScienceAsia 27 (2001) Fig 4, while those of Groups 2 and 3 are similar. It can be seen from Fig. 4 that the ACFs of all lags are within the upper and lower limits, meaning that the errors are random. However, the ACF of lag 1 in Fig. 5 exceeds the upper limit. This indicates that auto-correlations do exist in the errors and that the errors are not random. From the ACFs, we can conclude that the decomposition model is adequate for forecasting the demands of Groups 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8, but inadequate for forecasting those of Groups 2 and 3. Therefore, the ARIMA model is applied to Groups 2 and 3. From the original time series of the demand of Group 3 (in Fig. 3), and the ACFs of its original series (in Fig. ), it can be interpreted that the original series has a trend, and a high value of ACF of lag 12 indicates the existence of seasonality. 2 Hence, a non-seasonal first-difference to remove the trend and a seasonal first-difference to remove the strong seasonal spikes in the ACFs are tested. Fig. 7 shows the ACFs of the ARIMA (p,1,q)(P,1,Q) 12 model afte r applying the first difference. The nonseasonal plot indicates that there is an exponential decay and one significant ACF of lag 2. Thus, the AR(1) and MA(1) process denoted by ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,0)12 is identified. The ACFs of the residuals after applying this ARIMA model shown in Fig. reveals that there is a high value of ACF of lag 12. Therefore, the AR(1) and MA(1) process for the seasonal part or ARIMA (1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 can be identified. The ACFs of the residuals generated from this model are shown in Fig. 9. Since all ACFs are within the two significant limits, the ARIMA (1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model is adequate. Using the Statgraphic program, the model coefficients can be determined. The demand forecast for Group 3 is presented in Eq. 1. Ft = 1. 197 X t ? 1 ? 0. 197 X t ? 2 + 0. 54408 X t ? 12 ? 0. 65126 X t ? 13 + 0. 10718 X t ? 14 + 0. 45592 X t ? 24 ? 0. 54574 X t ? 25 + 0. 08982 X t ? 26 ? 1. 6699et ? 1 ? 0. 7154et ? 12 + 0. 76332et ? 13 + 29. 34781 (1) where Ft is the demand fo recast for period t Xt is the actual demand for period t et is the forecast error for period t Similarly, the forecasting model for Group 2 is ARIMA (3,0,0)(3,0,0). 12 The demand forecast of Group 2 is presented in Eq. 2. Estimated Autocorrelations for Original Series 1 Estimated Residual ACF 1 0. 5 0. 5 coefficient coefficient 0 0 -0. 5 -0. 5 -1 0 5 10 lag 15 20 25 -1 0 5 10 lag 15 20 25 Fig 6. ACFs of the actual demand for Group 3. Fig 8. ACFs of the residuals of ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,0)12 model for Group 3. Estimated Residual ACF 1 Estimated Autocorrelations for 1 Nonseasonal Differences 1 Seasonal Differences 1 0. 5 0. 5 coefficient coefficient 0 0 -0. 5 -0. 5 -1 0 5 10 lag 15 20 25 -1 0 5 10 lag 15 20 25 Fig 7. ACFs after first differencing for Group 3. Fig 9. ACFs of the residuals of ARIMA (1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model for Group 3. ScienceAsia 27 (2001) 275 Ft = 0. 36951X t? 1 + 0. 30695X t? 2 – 0. 18213X t? 3 + 0. 20132 X t? 12 ? 0. 07439 X t? 13 ? 0. 06180 X 14 + 0. 03667 X t? 15 ? 0. 03325X t? 24 + 0. 01228 X t? 25 + 0. 01021X t? 26 ? 0. 00606 X t? 27 + 0. 68660 X t? 36 ? 0. 25371X t? 37 ? 0. 21075X t? 38 + 0. 12505X t? 39 + 354. 4515 2) The forecast errors of the decomposition and ARIMA models for Groups 2 and 3 are presented in Table 2. It reveals that the ARIMA model has lower Table 2. Forecast errors of the decomposition and ARIMA models. MSE Products Group 2 Group 3 Decomposition ARIMA 4,363,290 2,227,592 3,112,974 1,235,788 MAPE (%) Decomposition ARIMA 31. 86 15. 97 29. 05 13. 18 MSE and MAPE than t he decomposition model. Therefore, the ARIMA model should be used to forecast the aggregate demands of Groups 2 and 3. For other product groups, however, the decomposition model should be used because it is more simple yet still adequate. The comparison of the demand forecast errors obtained from the forecasting models and those from the current practice of the marketing department (as presented in Table 3) indicates that the errors of the forecasting models are substantially lower than those of the current practice. Demand Forecasts of Individual Products The demand forecast of product i for period t, dit, is obtained by multiplying the aggregate demand forecast of the product group (obtained from the previous steps) by the corresponding product mix (as presented in Table 4). Table 3. Forecast errors of the current practice, decomposition, and ARIMA models. MSE Product Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Group 6 Group 7 Group 8 Current practice Decomposition 16,672,342 4,394,693 4,988,962 4,754,572 19,787,102 795,621 849,420 1,060,301 9,879,330 4,507,990 10,039,690 574,108 636,755 883,811 ARIMA 3,112,974 1,235,788 MAPE (%) Current practice Decomposition 30. 58 34. 68 23. 50 25. 73 17. 54 42. 70 38. 36 37. 93 26. 97 23. 24 13. 14 34. 80 34. 45 28. 76 ARIMA 29. 05 13. 18 – Table 4. Product mix. Product group Product 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 0. 17 0. 20 0. 26 0. 23 0. 14 1. 0 0. 53 0. 47 0. 65 0. 35 1. 0 1. 0 1. 0. 3 0. 7 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 276 ScienceAsia 27 (2001) Calculation of Safety Stock The safety stocks of finished products must be provided to protect against stock-out problems due to inaccurate demand forecasts. Based on the forecast errors obtained from the demand forecasting models, the amount of the safety stock is calculated using the following formula. 12 SSit = sf * ? j * ? ij (3) PRODUCTION PLANNING METHO D The production planning model is developed by initially defining decision variables and parameters, and then mathematically formulating the production planning model. Step 4 of the method requires that the model parameters be estimated and entered into the model. The model is solved for the optimal solution (Step 5). Step 6 recommends that the model parameters are updated, and the model is solved again after one planning period has passed. The production planning problem of the factory under consideration belongs to the class of multistage, multi-item, capacitated production planning model. The models in this class have been discussed extensively in. 6-11 They differ in assumptions, objectives, constraints, and solution methods. Our production planning model is a modification of the multi-stage, multi-product model discussed in Johnson and Montgomery. 6 Its objective is to minimize the total overtime and inventory holding costs. Costs of laying off and rehiring are not considered because laying off and rehiring are not allowed according to the labor union regulation. Since the production cost is time-invariant and all demands must be satisfied, the regular time production cost is thus not included in the objective function. Relevant parameters and decision variables are defined as follows: Parameters : hik = Holding cost per unit of product i at stage k (baht/unit/period) co = Cost per man-hour of overtime labor (baht/man-hour) dit = Demand forecast of product i for period t (units) aik = Processing time for one unit of product i at stage k (hours/unit) (rm)kt = Total available regular time excluding preventive maintenance and festival days at stage k for period t (man-hours) (om)kt = Total available overtime excluding preventive maintenance and festival days at stage k for period t (man-hours) W = Warehouse capacity (units) SSit = Safety stock of product i for period t (units) Iik0 = Initial inventory of product i at stage k (units) N = Total number of products (15 products) T = Total number of periods in the planning horizon (12 periods) K = Total number of stages (5 stages) where SSit = Required safety stock level of product i for period t sf = Safety factor = 1. 64 for a required service level of 95 % of the standard normal distribution ? j = Standard deviation of forecast errors of Group j. ?ij = Product mix of Product i in Group j. Since the errors of the recommended demand forecasting models are lower than those of the current practice, it is clear that SSit based on the use of the models must be lower than that determined from the current practice (assuming that the service levels of both cases are the same). Table 5 presents the required safety stocks of the current practice and the recommended forecasting models at 95 % service level. Table 5. Required safety stock of current practice and of recommended forecasting models. Safety stock (units) Product 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Current practice 1,138 1,339 1,741 1,540 937 3,438 1,941 1,722 2,324 1,252 7,295 1,463 1,511 507 1,182 Recommended forecasting models 887 1,043 1,356 1,200 730 2,905 979 868 2,274 1,224 5,258 1,245 1,323 460 1,072 ScienceAsia 27 (2001) 277 Decision variables: Xikt = Quantity of product i to be produced at stage k in period t (units) Iikt = Inventory of product i at stage k at the end of period t (units) Rkt = Regular time used at stage k during period t (man-hours) Okt = Overtime used at stage k during period t (man-hours) LP model: Minimize Z = ? ? ? hik Iikt + ? ? co Okt , (4) i =1 k =1 t =1 k =1 t =1 N K T K T Eq. 7 represents the material balance constraint in Stage 3, which produces the body of threecomponent products, for Products 13, 14, and 15. Constraint (13) must be included since the finished products are very bulky and require significant warehouse space that is quite limited. Work-inprocess inventory does not require significant storage space because it can be stacked. The non-negativity constraint (16) ensures that shortages of work-inprocess inventory do not occur. Input Parameters The initial inventory of product i at stage k, Iik0, is collected from real data of work-in-process or finished good inventories on the factory floor at the beginning of the planning horizon. The inventory holding cost of product i at stage k, hik, is estimated by assuming that the annual inventory holding cost is 25% of the cost per unit of the product at the respective production stage. Since the cost per unit is constant over the planning horizon, the annual inventory holding cost is time-invariant. The factory has enough space in the warehouse to store not more than 40,000 units of finished products. The total available regular time, (rm)kt, is estimated based on the fact that the factory is normally operated 16 hours a day and six days a week, and the total available overtime, (om)kt, is calculated by assuming that the overtime could not be more than six hours a day. The overtime cost, co, is assumed to be constant throughout the planning horizon, and is estimated to be 60 Baht per man-hour. After all related parameters have been estimated and entered into the planning model, the optimal values of all decision variables are calculated using the LINGO software. The computation time takes less than one minute on a Pentium PC. Results of the Production Planning Models with Different Levels of Safety Stock In this section, two production planning models with different safety stock levels (as shown in Table 5) are solved to determine the total cost savings when the recommended forecasting models are applied in place of the current practice. The inventory holding, overtime, and total costs of both models are presented in Table 6. Based on the optimal total cost of the current practice (4,078,746 Baht per year) and the optimal total cost of the recommended forecasting models (3,541,772 Baht per year), the total cost saving is 536,974 Baht per year, or 13. 2 %. It can be also seen Subject to – Finished product requirement constraints I i 5,t? 1 + X i 5t ? I i 5t = dit – ? i, t ; k = 5, (5) Material balance between stages constraints ? i, t ; k = 4, (6) (7) ? i, t ; k = 2, (8) ? i, t ; k = 1, (9) I i 4 ,t? 1 + X i 4 t ? I i 4 t = X i 5t I i 3,t? 1 + X i 3t ? I i 3t = X i 4 t ?t ; i = 13, 14, 15; k = 3, I i 2,t? 1 + X i 2t ? I i 2t = X i 4 t I i1,t? 1 + X i1t ? I i1t = X i 2t Capacity constraints ? aik X ikt ? Rkt + Okt i= 1 N ?k , t , (10) – Available regular and overtime constraints. Rkt ? (rm) kt Okt ? ( om) kt ?k , t , ? k , t , (11) (12) – Inventory capacity of finished product constraints. ? I ikt ? W i= 1 N ?t ; k = 5, (13) – Safety stock of finished product constraints. I ikt ? SS it ?i, t ; k = 5, (14) – Non-negativity conditions X ikt ? 0 I ikt ? 0 ?i, k , t , ? i, t ; k = 1, 2, 3, 4 (15) (16) 278 ScienceAsia 27 (2001) Table 6. Comparison of the optimal costs of production planning models. Optimal costs (Baht/year) Model based on the current practice Inventory holding cost Overtime cost Total cost 2,117,051 1,961,695 4,078,746 Model based on recommended forecasting models 1,775,552 1,766,220 3,541,772 REFERENCES 1. Nahmias S (1993) Production and Operations Analysis, 2nd ed, Irwin, New York. 2. Vandaele W (1983) Applied Time Series and Box-Jenkins Models, Academic Press, New York. 3. Winters PR (1960) Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Average. Management Science 6(4), 324-42. 4. Box GE and Jenkins GM (1970) Time Series Analysis, Forecasting, and Control, Holden-Day, San Francisco. 5. Makridakis S Wheelwright SC and McGee VE (1983) Forecasting Methods and Applications, 2nd ed, John Wiley Sons, New York. 6. Johnson LA and Montgomery DC (1974) Operations Research in Production Planning, Scheduling, and Inventory Control, John Wiley Sons, New York. 7. Bullington P McClain J and Thomas J (1983) Mathematical Programming Approaches to Capacity Constrained MRP Systems: Review, Formulation, and Problem Reduction. Management Science 29(10). 8. Gabbay H (1979) Multi-Stage Production Planning. Management Science 25(11), 1138-48. 9. Zahorik A Thomas J and Trigeiro W (1984) Network Programming Models for Production Scheduling in MultiStage, Multi-Item Capacitated Systems. Management Science 30(3), 308-25. 10. Lanzanuer V (1970) Production and Employment Scheduling in Multi-Stage Production Systems. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 17(2), 193-8. 11. Schwarz LB (ed) (1981) Multi-level Production and Inventory Control Systems: Theory and Practice, North-Holland, New York. 12. Tersine RJ (1994) Principles of Inventory and Materials Management, 4th ed, Prentice Hall, New Jersey. that the optimal inventory holding cost and overtime cost in the production planning model based on the recommended forecasting models are almost equal which indicates that the model can efficiently achieve a tradeoff between both costs. Normally, the optimal decisions in the first planning period will be implemented. After the first period has passed, the new forecasts will be determined, and the model parameters will be updated. The updated model is solved again to determine the optimal decisions in the current period. This is called a rolling horizon concept. However, the details and results of this step are not shown in this paper. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION The ARIMA model provides more reliable demand forecasts but it is more complicated to apply than the decomposition model. Therefore the ARIMA model should be used only when the decomposition model is inadequate. When compared against those of the current practice of the company, the errors of our selected models are considerably lower. This situation can lead to substantial reductions in safety stocks. Consequently, the lower safety stocks result in decreased inventory holding and overtime costs. The results of the production planning model are of great value to the company since the model can determine the optimal overtime work, production quantities, and inventory levels that yield the optimal total overtime and holding costs. The production planning method is more suitable than the existing one that does not consider any cost factors. Moreover, it has been proven that an application of appropriate forecasting techniques can reduce total inventory holding and overtime costs significantly. In conclusion, this paper demonstrates that an improvement in demand forecasting and production planning can be achieved by replacing subjective and intuitive judgments by the systematic methods. How to cite Demand Forecasting and Production Planning, Papers

Population Growth And Its Effect On Employment In Australia - Samples

Question: Discuss about the Population Growth And Its Effect On Employment In Australia. Answer: Background of the study Population growth is the increase in the number of individuals in the population. The Australia population has been having an upward trend in the census that has being conducted. The population increase half has been attributed to the immigration according to Ken Henry, the chairman of the National Australia Bank. The increased population stimulates economic growth, from small and simple quantities like increased labour force, which has improved the GDP to increased human capital ability of the population to innovate and create. Since the Sydney Olympics the Australia population has grown by 25 percent. The Australias population reached 23.7 million on 5th January 2015, according to Australia Bureau of Statistics. The Australia population has increased and the employment has been an issue for all the residents of Australia. The ageing bracket has increased in Australia while the young percentage in the population has been increasing in an upward trend. These indicate that the ageing percentage in the population have different preference for good and services. The labour to be provided in ageing is more official while the young person provides technical labour. The growth in the population has been contributed by an upward birth rate and immigration. The birth rate has been carried out by improved health facilities and medical education. This has lead to low death rate and thus an increased ageing bracket. The employment in Australia has paid workers who offer labour to business and get paid. The wage levels largely depend on the operation of demand and supply in labour market. The case of powerful labour include dentist, doctor and has a low supply where few can do the job the wage are high. The cases of less powerful labour include cleaners and have a high supply where most of the persons can attend to then the wages are low. The labour market has a weak, strong and ideal condition. The weak market condition there few job vacancies and those who can do the job are many. The strong market condition there are many job vacancies. The ideal both vacancies and those to fill exist. Statement of Problem Population growth in Australia is in an upward trend and opportunities for these populations are a matter to be addressed. When the opportunity are created the gender composition is to be addressed, males and females in these population should be given chances equally to allow gender equality. Employment schemes where part-time and full time on both genders should be addressed to allow growth of the economy. The growth in population should also view the creating opportunities and employments, food security, health facilities and infrastructures to the growing population. Research objectives This study had both general and specific objectives; General Objective The general objective of this study was to evaluate the growth of population in Australia and effect on employment Specific Objectives The study intends to achieve the following specific objectives To identify population growth and its effect on employment rate. To identify population growth and its effect on employment on the sex composition. To identify if the population growth affects unemployment rate. Hypothesis The study aimed at testing the following hypothesis question: H0: Employment on gender does not differ H1: Employment on gender differ H0: Employment on job class on gender does not differs H1: Employment on job class on gender differ H0: Employment ratio does not differs H1: Employment ratio differ Significance of the study The project finding will guide population schemes and employment schemes to improve the plan for the future population growth in years to come. The project finding will guide in identifying factors leading to population growth in Australia and allocation of resources. The study finding will guide in allocation of employment rate in males and females. The study will help in identifying the unemployment rate in Australia and the government role to this bracket of population. Introduction This chapter of the literature review views academic literature provide in the population growth in Australia and other region. The review also viewed effect of population growth on employment at Australia. Literature review Australian population is experiencing change in demography where proportions of old people are on rise while proportions of young are on decline (Robyn L., 2008). The government has started to impose policies which address issues of ageing population. With high number of aged person and low number of young person, the labour force is at risk of losing manpower. The Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS, 2013) estimated the population to 23 million. The Australia bureau of statistics also made future estimations for the population based on different assumptions i.e. migration and birth. The estimated population could reach 41.5 million by 2061, and estimated to 53.6 million by 2101. The population of Australia has increased by double in the period of 50 years ago, which has been resulted to natural births and immigration. The natural births rate of growths yielding 42 percent of the population growth while 58 percent being attributed to immigration. Cities are characterized by high population which led to unemployment. The population increases and job opportunities are few. The factors which led to high unemployment rate are rural urban migration, improper or lack of government policies, mismanagement of population and urban bias (Ilegbinosa et ela, 2014). In order to improve employment rate and discourage unemployment there is need to review socio-economic organization, manage rural-urban migration, and invest in human capital and encouraging spirit of entrepreneurship. The Australia natural rate has been influenced by economical, political and social factors. More has been attributed to health science and medical facilities, improved standards of living and infrastructure according to Ken Henry (National Australia Bank, 2015) According to National Research Council (1986), the role of males and female in the household and occupations has impact on the natural growth of the population. The economic prospect of the population cost of living, community attribute and family size. The economy such as inflation and unemployment greatly influence population growth. The cost of living if it is high then people will maintain small family size to be in a position to provide to them. The community attributes also influences since some have two children while other more than two children. The migration rate is due to improved standards of living for economical, political and social factor. The initial policy of migration was populate or perish then after some time the policy was changed to skilled labour. The policy was changed to cater for the modernization that was changing in the industrial. The change in the population the ageing population has a higher expectancy in terms of health, transport, entertainment and diet methods. The young population tends to have different types of transport, health, dressing code and entertainment (Wiley, 2014) In the international labour review (2004), the growing population has local market for good and service. The production in the company calls for economy of scale. The production process will be cheaper in the production of more units as compared to fewer units since the maintenance is a constant value. The rise in the labour force in the Australia is effective by immigrants helps overcome shortage of skills. The growing population create job for the skilled and the unskilled in the population. The wages competition is improved compared oversee wages. Pauline M. Neil A. (2011) in their study population growth and change identified population growth as big challenge to social, economic, environment and infrastructure in cities and rural areas. In cities the major issue is affordable housing, employment, social amenities and political management which are threatened by growing population. Rural areas are faced by threat of ageing population, depopulation and threats to socio-economic pattern. Australia 12 million work as paid worker, where wage levels largely depend on the operation of demand and supply in the labour market. The other section is contributed by volunteers who give their services for free. In cleaning, cultivating and nursing the old. The unemployment has also been a challenge for most of the families. The part time job are those that offer job for given hours in a day. These people tend to rest the remaining hour as well as having fun thus spending much as compared to earned amount. This kind of the seasonal job tends to influence unemployment at certain durations of the year. In the journal of population research (2005), the unemployment is a issue of discussion by the government to cater for the growing population. Methodology John D. (2016) described descriptive statistics require one variable to conduct the study. It have three main importances which are explaining, validating and describing research findings. Descriptive statistics are used to describe behavior and characteristics of sample population. It involves measure of locations such mean median and mode and also measures of variation such range, minimum, maximum, standard deviation and quartile. Inferential statistics are used to test the data. The researcher mainly uses inferential statistics to test if there is a relationship between an outcome and intervention. The first step is to check the distribution of data under study (Decaro S., 2011). It includes hypothesis testing and estimation statistics. The data used in the study is secondary data obtained from Australian Bureau of Statistics. The population under study was Australian population, who are either employed or unemployed consisting of male and female. Simple random sampling was used to obtain a sample of 474. These sampling techniques give every object in the population equal chance of being in the sample. This gives a representative sample which is free from biases. The data was then entered in Excel software for cleaning and analysis. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to describe the data and to answer research question. The variables under study were rate of employment, unemployment, composition of employment per gender and ratio of employment. Correlation is used to check statistical association between variables. The relations between the variables may be causal or not causal. Analysis of variance is statistical technique used to check differences among means and association between means. It also referred to Fisher analysis of variance which was used to improve t and z test which were only used for nominal categorical data test only. Results and findings Population changes The rate of natural growth has recorded an upward trend since 1981 but started to show a decline in September 2016. This indicates that there has been high birthrate as compared with death rate in Australia. Generally there is population increase from 1981 to 2016 in Australia. Relation between population growth and employment The Pearson product moment correlation coefficient between population growth and employment is 0.421632. There is positive correlation between population growth and employment. An increase in population led to an increase in employment. This does not mean as population increase the rate of employment changes, it implies the number people in employment increase as population rise. Anova: Single Factor SUMMARY Groups Count Sum Average Variance population growth 143 4851.9 33.92937 18.79744 employment total 143 1016109 7105.66 313643.4 ANOVA Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value F crit Between Groups 3.58E+09 1 3.58E+09 22799.5 2.9E-10 3.87441 Within Groups 44540026 284 156831.1 Total 3.62E+09 285 The analysis of variance between population growth and employment total as given above at 5% level of significance, the p-value is 0.0000000029 which is less than 0.05.We reject null hypothesis that state there is no significance between population growth and employment totals and conclude that the population differ significantly. Which implies the number of employment per year is not proportion to population rise. Difference between employment and gender SUMMARY Groups Count Sum Average Variance males 426 2153674 5055.573 576787 females 426 1655277 3885.626 928841.4 ANOVA Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value F crit Between Groups 2.92E+08 1 2.92E+08 387.2791 2.47E-71 3.852422 Within Groups 6.4E+08 850 752814.2 Total 9.31E+08 851 The null hypothesis states that there is no difference between employment rate and gender in Australia. From analysis of variance between gender and employment at 5% level of significance, the p-value is 2.47E-71 which is less than level of significance 0.05. Thus we reject null hypothesis and conclude that there is significance between gender and employment. This implies that the mean employment of males and females is not the same in Australia. One gender has higher rate of employment as compared to the other. There exists gender imbalance in employment with one gender being favored. Males are more in labour force as compared to females. The graph above shows that the level of employment between genders differs, male have high level of employment than females. The labour force of males and females increases from 1981 to 2016 as population increases in Australia. This indicates although high population results to increase in labour force, employment is not affected by population growth. Employment and job type Those employed in Australian labour force are either part-time or full time. The question is there any difference between these two groups of employment. The null hypothesis states that there is no difference between job types. SUMMARY Groups Count Sum Average Variance Full time 426 2821580 6623.427 825802.7 Part time 426 987370.6 2317.771 673399.1 ANOVA Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value F crit Between Groups 3.95E+09 1 3.95E+09 5267.787 0 3.852422 Within Groups 6.37E+08 850 749600.9 Total 4.59E+09 851 The p-value is 0 which is less than 5% level of significance. Null hypothesis is rejected and conclude that the mean employment of different job type differs significantly. Full time average employment is 6623427 while part time 2317771 persons. There is high level of employment as full time employee as compared to part time employee. Most people in Australia are employed as fulltime employees. The composition of employment using gender and job type that is part time and full time employment, female are more than any other grouping in part time employment. The difference between numbers of females in part time and those in full time employments is very high as compared to males who have almost equal in full time jobs and in part time jobs. Employment to population ratio and gender Employment to population ratio is given by employment level divided by number of females or males. Pearson correlation coefficient is -0.37453 which implies that there is negative weak linear relationship between employments to population ratio of female and male. SUMMARY Groups Count Sum Average Variance Employment to population ratio:male 426 29078.48 68.25934 3.279746 Employment to population ratio:female 426 21302.53 50.00593 24.26645 ANOVA Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value F crit Between Groups 70968.82 1 70968.82 5152.714 0 3.852422 Within Groups 11707.13 850 13.7731 Total 82675.95 851 The mean of employment to population ratio of male is 68.25934 with variance 3.279746 of and mean of employment to population ratio of female is 50.00593 with variance of 24.26645 high variance indicates high variation of observed data from the mean in females. The p value is 0 which is less than 0.05 the significance level. Thus we reject null hypothesis that there is no significance differences in mean employment to population ratio of both gender and conclude that mean employment to population ratio differs significantly in both genders. Discussion and conclusion The relationship between population growth and number of employment is positive linear, where population increase results to higher employment. Though the relationship is not causal that is population increase does not mean increase in employments. Males are more employed compared to females, although females are more employed in part time jobs as compared to males. This is due responsibilities of females at home as mother they opt to be employed as part time employment. The employment to population ratio of female is less compared to male this shows that higher level of employment of males in Australia. The study did not establish the cause of higher employment in males as compared to females. This is major limitation of this study and more study is required to check and explain the causal of imparities in employment composition and gender and also to establish the causal of employment rate increase. References Ethridge, D. (2004). Research Methodology in Applied Economics. Chicago:John Wiley Sons, pg 24. Fox W. Bayat M. (2007). A guide to managing Research. London: Juta publications, pg 45. Ilegbinosa I., Moses O. Praise U., (2014). Population and its Impact on Level of Unemployment in Least Developed Countries. Arts Social Science, vol J5, pg 81. John, D. (2016). The ultimate guide to writing dissertation Desaro S. (2011). A Students guide to conceptual side of inferential statistics. Retreived[September 19 2017] from https://psycology.sdcnet.com Tashakkori C. Teddlie (2003). Handbook of mixed methods in social research Thousands Oaks, CA: Sage, pg 273-296. Robyn L. (2008). The Changing Face of the Australian Population. Public Health, vol 188, pg 720-723. Neuman, W. L. (2014). Social Research Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches, 7th Edition. Pearson Education Limited: UK. Australia Bureau of Statistics (2016). Australian demographic statistics[online] www.abs.gov.au Australia Bureau of Statistics (2017). Labour force, Australia[online] www.abs.gov.au The conversation (2017). Australia doesnt have population policy[online] https://theconvesation.com Pauline M. Neil A., (2011). Population Growth and Change: Implication for Australias Cities and Regions. Geographical Research, vol 49, pg 317-335.

The Old Regime Essay Research Paper The free essay sample

The Old Regime Essay, Research Paper The Old Regime was a period of clip frequently considered by many to be representative of a crashed society. Under the Old Regime in France, the male monarch was the absolute sovereign. King Louis XIV had centralized power in the royal bureaucratism, the authorities sections that took attention of his policies. King Louis # 8217 ; reign in France played a important function in its history and economic system. He was a male monarch to all during the most of import events of the clip, but he was besides a fiscal male monarch to the rich because he created a revenue enhancement system that merely benefited those who were affluent. During the clip of the Old Regime, society was broken down into three orders or categories, known traditionally as estates. The most of import category of the three consisted of the rebellious Nobility of the Second Estate which contained about 400,000 persons who held all the public offices in the kingdom. We will write a custom essay sample on The Old Regime Essay Research Paper The or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page 1 The first two estates numbered the least but held the most influence in the whole land. Most of the King # 8217 ; s curates of province were of Baronial birth, and even the highest order of the First Estate, the Clergy, was filled with the younger boies of Baronial families.2 Like the First Estate, the Second Estate paid barely any revenue enhancements and by and large consisted of the richest members of society. The First and Second Estates were grouped together because they had similar political beliefs. The Third Estate strongly resented the advantages of the first two estates. The first two estates were the richest of the three estates. The First Estate consisted of the Clergy, or the Church. The First Estate owned about 10 per centum of all the land in France. This estate paid no revenue enhancements, but to back up church activities such as running schools and caring for the hapless, it collected a tithe, or a revenue enhancement on income.3 In add-on, this estate was made up of the Nobles who lived epicurean lives in major Gallic metropoliss such as Versailles and Paris. The First Estate absolutely illustrates the sum of power and wealth possessed by the Church during a clip when Church and State were non separated. The Second Estate in French life was chiefly comprised of the Nobility. This category, by and large characterized by the richest members of society, enjoyed extended rights and privileges, great land, and much wealth. The Nobles accumulated their wealth by roll uping revenue enhancements, rents, and dues for the usage of their farms or estates. Noblemen traditionally lived by the values of trueness, bravery, refined manners, and service to the King.4 However, while these blue bloods still claimed the privileges of their estate, many had forgotten their responsibilities and values.5 This estate shows how lopsided society was ; most members of the Second Estate weren # 8217 ; t even rich, but were born into a Baronial household and were hence considered Nobility. The Third Estate consisted of Gallic citizens who weren # 8217 ; t classified as either Clergy or Nobility. Since the first two estates were exempt from revenue enhancements, the Third Estate had to supply about all of the state # 8217 ; s income. Yet the Third Estate, easy the largest since it encompassed every Frenchman who was neither an blue blood nor a reverend, was the least influential of the estates. In general, the Third Estate was composed of three groups: the Peasants, the Middle Class, and the Urban Workers. Peasants chiefly led the lives of husbandmans. In contrast, the Middle Class was composed of the most of import people in society. However, the Middle Class frequently worried about its societal position, for it wasn # 8217 ; t socially recognized because it was portion of the Third Estate. The Urban Workers, on the other manus, held much weight in society before and during the Revolution. Their choler at low rewards and deficits of staff of life and other staple n utrients frequently resulted in rabble force during the Revolution.6 While the first two orders enjoyed many advantages, the common mans of the Third Estate had none. Barred by jurisprudence and usage from possessing any sort of political power, these people were besides burdened with taxes.7 They were forced to pay revenue enhancements on their income, land, belongings, harvests, salt, baccy, vino, cyder and even their lives. If a provincial sold a piece of land, he or she paid a gross revenues revenue enhancement, every bit good as an extra revenue enhancement, on the money he or she received. These revenue enhancements were merely excessively much for a difficult working single to pay ; therefore, this category system caused human life to be unequal. Ironically, these people were taught that all were born equal ; hence, they learned that sorting world must was incorrect. However, limitations were still put upon the subordinated Third Estate. In add-on to fiscal restraints, provincials and husbandmans were out to kill any game animate beings, even t hose that threatened their harvests. On top of all these limitations the common mans had to bear, they were faced with yet another load # 8212 ; forced military service. Once in the ground forces, these people were paid really ill and fed even worse. These restraints were merely levied upon the Third Estate ; therefore, this estate became rather infuriated. As a consequence of these limitations, the whole Third Estate was populating in an inferior province of head that caused those within this estate to desire more. The people of the Third Estate were tired of being treated below the belt throughout their mundane lives. The first two estates were basking their tax-exempt life styles while the hapless paid for this unfairness. Clearly, such a system could non last for long. During the 1780 # 8217 ; s, France # 8217 ; s fiscal crisis grew daily as male monarchs drained the state # 8217 ; s exchequer. The Peasants wanted alleviation from their antediluvian and dated responsibilities while the Middle Class desired freedom as a wages for T inheritor industry labor.8 Despite this turning tenseness in France, the King continued to defy the demands of his people. As a consequence of his changeless refusal to allow his people equal rights, many rebellions and wars broke out and diminished the country’s exchequer. Furthermore, a series of bad crops between 1688 and 1694 brought about entire catastrophes.9 For illustration, the cold and moisture summers reduced crops by more so tierce. The overall consequence was widespread famishment, and, in many states, a decease rate that rose to several times the normal figure.10 These unfortunate fortunes hurt the Peasants even more than the disadvantages they faced before the dearth. In add-on to these events, nutrient public violences, deficiency of work, and the issue of political booklets all played cardinal functions in fuelling the fire of the Gallic Revolution.11 This revolution symbolized equality for all categories around the universe. The Metropolitan Museum offered many different sorts of shows of Gallic art and architecture that illustrated the contrasting categories of Gallic society. Upon review of these shows, one can easy detect that male monarchs and Lords dominated Gallic art and pictures. These shows show an perceiver the unequal society that the people of that twenty-four hours were forced to populate in. For illustration, the pictures exemplified the prestigiousness, privileged, and rich nature of the Nobles ; these were conditions that the Third Estate could non see. The first two estates endured really fruitful lives, and this is reflected in the art exhibit at the Metropolitan Museum. Peasants weren # 8217 ; t considered anything but humble provincials, and were therefore neer truly recognized until during the Revolution. The Peasants in the Third Estate became accustomed to their life styles and knew they would neer go portion of the rich society. There were two suites in the Metropolitan Museum that illustrated the wealth and award possessed by the first two estates. The first room had to be the sleeping room of King Louis XIV, for this room was nil less so perfect. The walls, surrounded by angels, looked like they belonged to the room of a God. The walls besides contained images, one being of King Louis himself. The King # 8217 ; s portrayal was godlike every bit good, for he bore a confident stance. This room contained a consummate hearth, which would hold decidedly been a sight to any provincial who would hold had the award to see it. The other room that would catch the oculus of any common man would hold to be the room of the Hotel De Cabris. At first glimpse, any perceiver could see that this room signified wealth with its rich furniture and atmosphere. These two suites show how the rich lived and how happy they were while the Third Estate struggled to be. While the first two estates lived in harmoniousness and merely worried about what they wanted, Third Estate members were concerned with how they would go on to populate under the limitations put upon them. These two suites would give provincials a sense of letdown # 8212 ; they would experience that they wouldn # 8217 ; t sum to anything because they weren # 8217 ; t born into a affluent or baronial household. These suites, or any suites of Nobility, would be nil more than a reminder of how unequal the society of their clip was. The architecture of that twenty-four hours was nil less so spectacular ; nevertheless, it was constructed merely to the satisfaction of the rich, and a batch of the things that they built didn # 8217 ; t need to be built. Since holding money was natural to the rich, they decided to populate in luxury instead than assist the hapless societies. One illustration of an unnesscary edifice that was built would hold to be the Palace at Versailles. The King erected this edifice because he wanted all the Gallic Nobles to populate together, yet this topographic point became nil more so a prison for the Nobility. This edifice did non hold to be made, but it was created to demo the illustriousness of the King and his full land. These illustrations of architecture show that a provincial, who was considered to be low in social position, would experience regret in any of these topographic points because they contained things that were built extravagantly for the wealthy. In a society that has nil left but hope, the rich are frequently resented. The Gallic Society in the seventeenth century was made up of unequal categories. Even though the lowest category made up more than half of the Gallic society during that clip, it was treated the worst and given nil but problem. King Louis Fourteen might hold had a tight fiscal clasp on France, but he did so at the disbursal of the hapless. A provincial would experience wholly out of topographic point in a rich scene like the one within the Metropolitan Museum. End Notes 1 ) Dowd, David. Gallic Revolution ( New York: American Heritage Pub, 1965 ) pg. 13 2 ) Dowd, David. Gallic Revolution, pg. 14. 3 ) Corzine, Phyllis. The Gallic Revolution ( San Diego: Lucent Books, Inc. 1995 ) pg. 15. 4 ) Corzine, Phyllis. The Gallic Revolution, pg 16. 5 ) Corzine, Phyllis. The Gallic Revolution, pg. 16. 6 ) Otfinoski, Steven. Triumph and Terror ( New York: Facts on File, Inc. 1993 ) pg. 9 7 ) Corzine, Phyllis. The Gallic Revolution, pg. 20. 8 ) Otfinoski, Steven. Triumph and Terror, pg. 10. 9 ) Dowd, David. The Gallic Revolution, pg. 15. 10 ) Mckay, John P. , Hill, Bennett D. , Buckler, John, A History of Western Society. 6th Ed. ( New York: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1999 ) pg. 544. 11 ) Mckay, John P. , Hill, Bennett D. , Buckler, John, A History of Western Society. 6th Ed. Pg. 545. 12 ) Otfinoski, Steven. Triumph and Terror, pg. 13.

Effects of Hydrotherapy Essays

Effects of Hydrotherapy Essays Effects of Hydrotherapy Paper Effects of Hydrotherapy Paper There are many alternative methods of health care available today. People that are disappointed with medical or surgical health care are turning to alternative methods to help themselves. Some alternative methods are positive through, acupuncture, therapeutic touch and hydrotherapy. These methods are used for several different reasons such as to reat chronic pain, reduce anxiety and stimulate healing. Hydrotherapy is an external application of water to the human body for therapeutic purposes. Hot water helps muscles to relax. Therefore, it reduces pain and improves circulation. Cold water lowers the bodies temperture so it reduces blood circulation, increases muscle tone and reduces swelling after an injury and reduces muscular pain. A patient who is weak and finds it hard to move an injured limb without aid maybe able to perform a full range of movements in a hydrotherapy pool. Polio victims and paraplegics may get great benefit form this form of physical therapy. It is easier for these people to move in water. Muscles only need to exert only a fraction of their normal effort to maintain a normal body posture in the water. Hydrotherapy is generally available as part of a spa therapy and has evolved into a separate form of treatment. Contemporary hydrotherapy pools are small, shallow, heated swimming pools. Some are circular and use jets to make the water swirl around. The water is usually chlorinated. Amoung the most popular is those in which the waters of natural springs are used. Thousands of people suffering from a wided variety of ailments frequent mineral baths in search of the cures attributed to local waters and muds. Although, physicians generally doubt that mineral water has any more healing power than regular water. To become a hydrotherapist you can take classes at a college especially for hydrotherapy, such as Canadian College of Massage and Hydrotherapy. Also taking jobs or volunteer jobs at clinics, is a good idea. In conclusion, there are several types of alternative methods of health care available for use. One of them is Hydrotherapy. Hydrotherapy is good for muscle relaxation, reducing pain, and improving circulation. Also, it increases muscle tone, reduces swelling after injury and reduces muscular pain. In addition, alternative methods of health care are becoming more and more popular, and job outlook for this career is excellent.

Advantages Of Unit Banking Essay Example for Free

Advantages Of Unit Banking Essay ? 1.Local Development:Unit banking is localized banking. The unit bank has the specialised knowledge of the local problems and serves the requirements of the local people in a better manner than branch banking. The funds of the locality are utilised for the local development and are not transferred to other areas 2.Promotes Regional Balance:Under unit banking system, there is no transfer of resources from rural and backward areas to the big industrial commercial centres. This tends to reduce regional in balance. 3.Easy Management:The management and supervision of a unit bank is much easier and more effective than that under branch banking system. There are less chances of fraud and irregularities in the financial management of the unit banks. 4.Initiative in Banking Business:Unit banks have full knowledge of and greater involvement in the local problems. They are in a position to take initiative to tackle these problems through financial help. 5.No Monopolistic Tendencies:Unit banks are generally of small size. Thus, there is no possibility of generating monopolistic tendencies under unit banking system. 6.No Inefficient Branches:Under unit banking system, weak and inefficient branches are automatically eliminated. No protection is provided to such banks. 7.No diseconomies of Large Scale Operations:Unit banking is free from the diseconomies and problems of large-scale operations which are generally experienced by the branch banks. 8.Easy Management and Control:Under unit banking system, it becomes very easy for a single office to manage and control efficiently. 9.Close Management and Workers Relationship:Under unit banking system, there prevails a close and cordial relationship between employer and employees. 10.Quick Decision:The owners or the management of unit banks can take quick decision and prompt action in times of emergencies. 11.Use of Local Resources:Local financial resources are used for local development. 12.Lesser Fraud and Irregularities:Due to the less scattered affairs of the bank, there are very little possibilities of fraud and irregularities. 1.No. Distribution of Risks:Under unit banking, the bank operations are highly localised. Therefore, there is little possibility of distribution and diversification of risks in various areas and industries. 2.Inability to Face Crisis:Limited resources of the unit banks also restrict their ability  to face financial crisis. These banks are not in a position to stand a sudden rush of withdrawals. 3.No Banking Development in Backward Areas:Unit banks, because of their limits resources, cannot afford to open uneconomic banking business is smaller towns and rural area. As such, these area remain unbanked. 4.Lack of Specialization:Unit banks, because of their small size, are not able to introduce, and get advantages of, division of labor and specialization. Such banks cannot afford to employ highly trained and specialized staff. 5.Costly Remittance of Funds:A unit bank has no branches at other place. As a result, it has to depend upon the correspondent banks for transfer of funds which is very expensive. 6.Disparity in Interest Rates:Since easy and cheap movement of does not exist under the unit banking system, interest rates vary considerably at different places. 7.Local Pressures:Since unit banks are highly localised in their business, local pressures and interferences generally disrupt their normal functioning. 8.Undesirable Competition:Unit banks are independently run by different managements. This results in undesirable competition among different unit banks. 9.Limited Size of Operation:Unit bank business can not be operated on large scale because of its limited area. Being the small organisation, division of labour can not be applied. 10.No Economy of Reserves:Under unit banking, bank can not transfer its funds to any other branch. So economy in cash reserve can not be secured under this system. 11.Limited Financial Resources:A unit bank has limited financial resources so it is not able to provide full and adequate banking facilities to the industry and trade of the area. 12.Investment of Idle Funds:A unit bank having no other branches, can not utilize its idle funds in profitable ways. Advantages Of Unit Banking. (2016, Oct 19).

Communication final project Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Communication final project - Essay Example This essay is an attempt to summarize and apply Emory Griffin’s ideas about personal friendship and communication. If what has been mentioned above is true, it is certain that the first and most important among the fundamentals of friendship is shared personal love. Griffin specified the actual range of varied ideas of love among authors in an effort to find an equivalent broad range of understanding of the essentials of communication and mutual love in friendship. Griffin describes ‘personal love’ or what he specifically referred to as ‘intimate friendship’ as a human relationship that has â€Å"a life of its own that is greater than the separate lives of the two friends† (Griffin, 1987, 214). This definition apparently includes personal awareness by each on the other’s distinctive self-identity. It has been argued that since intimate friendship us a special type of deep-seated love, it will in fact frequently transform into deep-seated love and create desire, or love, for what the completely loved individual requires as instrumental objectives or as way to these objectives. Love will encourage actions. Griffin reminds that intimate friendship, of its essence, will be fundamental love, specifically, imbued with sentiments of love such as bliss, pleasure, sweetness, warmth, or in several instances, forgiveness and sympathy. Making friends and keeping them requires a lot of uphill struggles. Elements like acceptance, patience, understanding and love determine friendship in its best. The main thing that grows as roots to the mentioned instruments is communication; nevertheless, reminds Griffin, communication has also its limitations. Not all communication efforts can strengthen, mend, and revive broken relationships; it can also destroy a good friendship. Communication should then be used with extra caution by making use of judgment. Griffin

Business Statistics Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words - 1

Business Statistics - Essay Example ategy refers to an operation that an organization conducts to converse information concerning services and products to potential customers in order to induce them to purchase such products (Tellis 1). In contemporary organizations, the main aim of advertising strategy is to increase awareness of organizations’ services and products, upsurge total customers and competitors and finally, to fosters the business image of an organization. For any business entity interested in succeeding, advertisement is very vital because through it, an organization is capable of getting new customers as it increases its total consumer base. Secondly, advertisement is important as it retains the organizations’ customers thus avoiding their diversion to other products. Thirdly, advertisement escalates the total company sales because when a company advertises definite commodity, it will explain to individuals why that commodity is better than its substitute hence enhancing many people to prefer their commodity. Finally, advertisement leads to fortunate change in a company’s’ products hence increasing its total sales (Tellis 3). I decided to analyze the importance of advertis ing to an organization since it will help me understand whether increasing the budgets assigned to advertising has any positive effect on the performance of the organization. My business research will entail ten business organizations in U.S that advertise their goods and services together with other ten business organizations that do not advertise their products. I will conduct random sampling from a list of both organizations that advertise their products and those that do not. I will select ten organizations from each list and collect information concerning my research questions from these organizations before concluding on my hypothesis. Therefore, the total sample for this research is twenty organizations. The data collected will be mainly related to the three research hypotheses that the research is

Trauma, sexual trauma & counselling Essay Example for Free

Trauma, sexual trauma counselling Essay †¢ A strain we feel at different times/in different situations †¢ Set of external forces impinging on the person (unemployment, crime, etc) †¢ Set of psychological physiological reactions (racing heart, sweating palms etc) †¢ Can be opportunity for growth The spark that pushes us into action †¢ The extent to which an individual experiences stress depends on the event, together with the individual’s personality ability to cope Crises †¢ A normal reaction to a difficult experience an individual has not faced before †¢ In crises a person feels Confused, overwhelmed unable to cope †¢ Can be an external event, or an internal one caused by development †¢ A turning point An opportunity to learn skills, find resources adapt Trauma Trauma Definitions †¢ â€Å"Situations in which the victim is rendered powerless and great danger is involved† â€Å"Profound deviation from normal life experience† THUS sudden, overwhelming, unanticipated, suggests threat of injury or death. experience fear, helplessness, loss of control extreme powerlessness †¢ Traumatic events extraordinary overwhelm the ordinary human adaptations to life generally involve threats to life or bodily integrity, or a close personal encounter with violence or death. †¢ Most notable characteristic: the feelings of helplessness terror that victims are left to deal with. 4 The Effects of Trauma †¢ Trauma overtaxes the ability to cope †¢ Can damage mental health †¢ Traumatised people feel act as though their nervous systems have been disconnected from the present: Persistent expectation of danger Imprint of the traumatic event that does not fade Numbing response of giving up that becomes generalised. †¢ Psychologically mentally, trauma refers to: wounding of emotions, will to live beliefs about the self the world dignity and sense of self security †¢ Impacts normal ways of thinking feeling, so previous coping mechanisms to handle stress is no longer functional. †¢ Victim feels like a thing, a vulnerable object, subject to the will of a power/force greater than themselves Different Kinds of Traumas †¢ Natural disasters(flood, fire, hurricane, etc) †¢ Man-made catastrophes(war, terrorism, bus disasters, etc) †¢ Unintentional violence(car accidents, culpable homicide) †¢ Intentional violence (forms of victimisation involving threat to life, health limb) †¢ Trauma caused by nature → Disaster Trauma caused by humans → Atrocity Direct vs Indirect Trauma †¢ Indirect trauma affects those exposed to or witnessing the traumatic event symptoms of indirect victims can be identical to those of direct victims family of the victim, those in helping profession, children in domestic violence situations †¢ Can be a victim of direct indirect trauma at the same time witnessing a rape/murder while being held hostage. Single vs Multiple Trauma †¢ Trauma can be a single event, or multiple events (being hijacked more than once) Continuous vs Complex Trauma †¢ Continuous Traumatic stress: Situations in which people are exposed to ongoing trauma Residents of areas with high levels of violent crime Repeated exposure to violent situations Develop a numbing response to additional traumatic events, making it difficult to detect they are traumatised Can seem lethargic or depressed, don’t understand what is going on so don’t seek assistance †¢ Complex Trauma: Situations in which victims experience prolonged, repeated traumatic events Usually there is a relationship between the victim offender Victim is under control of offender, and cannot escape for an extended period First trauma is unexpected, but over time the victim awaits further incidents with enormous psychological tension Eg marital rape or child sexual abuse Conclusion †¢ People respond differently One person’s â€Å"stressful event† can be another person’s â€Å"trauma† All are relative to how individuals react to situations †¢ A hypothetical continuum plots stress, crises trauma, plotting the increase in intensity †¢ In practice it can be difficult to draw distinctions, the client’s definition should always be used 1.2 DEFINING SEXUAL TRAUMA †¢ Sexual trauma is: Trauma of a sexual nature The trauma creates emotional turmoil for the survivor May impair the survivor’s functioning in certain areas (self-esteem, relationships sexuality) Problems may manifest much later, when the survivor develops understanding of the wrongness of the activities they participated in, given that participation may even have been passive. 9 1.2.1 Rape and Child Sexual Abuse †¢ 1 in 4 children in SA are sexually abused at some time †¢ Just as many boys as girls under age 10 are sexually abused †¢ 80% of offenders are well known to, and trusted by, their victims †¢ There has been a significant increase in young offenders (

Mother Daughter Relationships - The Mother-daughter Relationship in Amy

Daughters and Mothers in The Joy Luck Club Children, as they become adults, become more appreciative of their parents. In The Joy Luck Club, the attitudes of four daughters toward their mothers change as the girls mature and come to realize that their mothers aren't so different after all. As children, the daughters in this book are ashamed of their mothers and don't take them very seriously, dismissing them as quirky and odd. "I could never tell my father . . . How could I tell him my mother was crazy?" (p. 117). They don't try to comprehend their culture, which is a big part of understanding their traditional Chinese mothers. On page 6, one of the daughters states, "I can never remember things I don't understand in the first place," referring to Chinese expressions her mother used. When their mothers show pride in them, the girls only show their embarrassment. One daughter shows her shame when she says to her mother, "I wish you wouldn't do that, telling everyone I'm your daughter" (p. 101). The girls cannot relate to their mothers because they were raised in a different world. No matter how much the mothers care for them or how much they sacrifice to make their girls' lives better, the daughters are blind to their mothers' pain and feelings. All four of the Joy Luck mothers need their daughters to understand them, pass on their spirit after they are gone, and understand what they have gone through for their girls. One mother dreams of doing this on her trip to a new life: "In America I will have a daughter just like me . . . over there nobody will look down on her . . . and she will always be too full to swallow any sorrow! She will know my meaning because I will give her this swan . . . it c... ...n away a long time ago to what I had imagined was a safer place. And hiding in this place, behind my invisible barriers, I knew what lay on the other side: her side attacks. Her secret weapons. Her uncanny ability to find my weakest spots. But in the brief instant that I had peered over the barriers I could finally see what was really there: an old woman, a wok for her armor, a knitting needle for her sword, getting a little crabby as she waited patiently for her daughter to invite her in. (pp. 203-204) In conclusion, as children, the daughters didn't understand their mothers or their culture. The daughters were being raised in a different world. Their perceptions of their mothers changed, though, as they grew up and realized that they weren't so different from them after all. They finally understood and respected their traditional Chinese mothers. Mother Daughter Relationships - The Mother-daughter Relationship in Amy Daughters and Mothers in The Joy Luck Club Children, as they become adults, become more appreciative of their parents. In The Joy Luck Club, the attitudes of four daughters toward their mothers change as the girls mature and come to realize that their mothers aren't so different after all. As children, the daughters in this book are ashamed of their mothers and don't take them very seriously, dismissing them as quirky and odd. "I could never tell my father . . . How could I tell him my mother was crazy?" (p. 117). They don't try to comprehend their culture, which is a big part of understanding their traditional Chinese mothers. On page 6, one of the daughters states, "I can never remember things I don't understand in the first place," referring to Chinese expressions her mother used. When their mothers show pride in them, the girls only show their embarrassment. One daughter shows her shame when she says to her mother, "I wish you wouldn't do that, telling everyone I'm your daughter" (p. 101). The girls cannot relate to their mothers because they were raised in a different world. No matter how much the mothers care for them or how much they sacrifice to make their girls' lives better, the daughters are blind to their mothers' pain and feelings. All four of the Joy Luck mothers need their daughters to understand them, pass on their spirit after they are gone, and understand what they have gone through for their girls. One mother dreams of doing this on her trip to a new life: "In America I will have a daughter just like me . . . over there nobody will look down on her . . . and she will always be too full to swallow any sorrow! She will know my meaning because I will give her this swan . . . it c... ...n away a long time ago to what I had imagined was a safer place. And hiding in this place, behind my invisible barriers, I knew what lay on the other side: her side attacks. Her secret weapons. Her uncanny ability to find my weakest spots. But in the brief instant that I had peered over the barriers I could finally see what was really there: an old woman, a wok for her armor, a knitting needle for her sword, getting a little crabby as she waited patiently for her daughter to invite her in. (pp. 203-204) In conclusion, as children, the daughters didn't understand their mothers or their culture. The daughters were being raised in a different world. Their perceptions of their mothers changed, though, as they grew up and realized that they weren't so different from them after all. They finally understood and respected their traditional Chinese mothers.

Philip K. Dick Essay

During his lifetime, Philip K. Dick was able to achieve some success in the publication of his science fiction short stories and even published 16 novels in the course of just seven years in the early 1960s, but the author was always frustrated with his lack of mainstream success. The problem, of course, was that Dick was a man ahead of his time. Since his death, seven of his works have been made into motion pictures—a number surpassed only by Stephen King (Sutin 1). But the reasons for the change may have as much to do with a changing society as it did with the man himself. Arguably, Dick may not have been easy to work with. During the initial work on â€Å"Blade Runner†, Dick who was not directly involved in the project gave an interview criticizing the film adaptation. He was later shown a preview of some of the special effects and the working script before his death and is said to have been pleased with it (Sutin 1). Regardless of his later reaction to the script, Dick was a troubled man. He was first diagnosed as a schizophrenic when he was in seventh grade and later mental evaluations both differed and verified the diagnosis. Regardless of the specifics, it is clear that Dick suffered from a severe form of mental illness in addition to a drug problem (Sutin 1). And, in 1974, he had what most people would have classified as an encounter with extraterrestrials. Though he never called it such and openly discussed the possibility that the visions and auditory events may have been hallucinations brought on by his mental illness, the reports of the incident did nothing to make him appear more stable. Since his death, the rights to his work have been handled by a trust comprised of his three children who seek to maintain his work as he envisioned it (â€Å"Philip K. Dick† 1). But it is also more likely that the sudden interest in Dick’s work has more to do with the work itself than the loss of the man that created it.   Most of his science fiction deals with a dark future, much more bleak than the greed is good 1980s would have found appropriate. Indeed, science fiction films before â€Å"Blade Runner† and especially before â€Å"Star Wars† were more fantastical voyages beyond the stars than the complex moral and ethical dilemmas set forth in Dick’s work. â€Å"Blade Runner† forces the viewer/reader to contemplate issues of humanity and the questions of genetic research and to some extent the definition of life and the soul. â€Å"Minority Report† asks questions about free will and â€Å"Total Recall† makes us evaluate greed when it applies to things we have always taken for granted, like air. ‘Paycheck† leads to the question of whether a person would be willing to sacrifice all his memories for money and if, having said yes, he should be able to change his mind. Like Fitzgerald needed the Jazz Age, Dick needed the modern word. â€Å"Total Recall’ fit perfectly into the end of the decade of greed when people were beginning to rethink their priorities. After the cloning of Dolly the sheep and seemingly endless technological advances, the ethical dilemmas of â€Å"Minority Report†, â€Å"Blade Runner† and â€Å"paycheck† no longer seem like such outlandish ideas. These are true horror stories of real life ethics. And, Dick needed George Lucas to pave the way. Until the 1970s, science fiction was still a small branch of mainstream fiction. There had been Lost in Space and Star Trek, to try to bring the genre to the masses, but it was still a fringe culture until â€Å"Star Wars† made science fiction a real movie genre with real viewers. By taking a classic plot line and superimposing it on a background of outer space with special effects and a love story and an action movie, Lucas changed the face of science fiction. More readers were attracted to the genre and more viewers were attracted to science fiction movies. Then, studios could approach the body of work already completed by â€Å"Dick and not have to deal with any of the original writer’s foibles or personality defects and have a readymade supply for their newest hit genre. So, they did. Works Cited â€Å"Philip K. Dick†, , Accessed December 16, 2007. Sutin,   Lawrence. â€Å"Philip K. Dick, 1928-1982†, 2003, Accessed December 16, 2007.

Local Study About Social Networking

TOPIC: CORRELATIVE ASSESMENT OF REALITY TELEVISION AND SECONDARY STUDENTS VALUES FORMATION IN STO. NINO FORMATION AND SCIENCE SCHOOL DURING S/Y 2012-2013 CHAPTER 1 THE PROBLEM AND IT’S BACKGROUND Introduction: The world today Is being controlled by the technology. With all the various types of new inventions and gadgets. People are slaves of all the product of the intelligence of mankind. People follow the trends of the world, whatever is new, people do follow. The influence of media Is a very big destruction to humankind. The invasion of new television programs are trending especially to the teenagers.Reality television began in 1948 with Allan Funt’s TV series Candid Camera. Reality Television is a television programming that presents purportedly unscripted melodramatic or humorous, situation, documents, actual events ,and usually features ordinary people instead of professional actors. Reality television represents the life of rich high class individuals who thrive o ff drama, materialistic items and fame. Girls are being very liberated and show off their interest on men, or they do the first step instead of the guy moving first. Reality television shows series as an entertainment purpose to all of it’s viewers, young or old.Producers want viewers to think and believe that these shows are not scripted. Most of the individuals are most of the times very selfish, childish and materialistic. When people watch reality television programs, they indicate to think that what they are seeing or what they are watching are true to life. And because of that, they believe that what they see on TV is what life really is. Viewers of reality television who are addicted to these daily programs often get deeply involved into any situation. Often, certain reality television shows are based on topics that have no thought process or concepts.The audience thus gets hooked on to television shows, which do not really have any intelligent concept. For example, th ese shows often highlights constant fights or disagreements between a group and even telecasts certain moment not suitable for viewing for a family audience. However, some shows may even show positive things, which viewers can learn and apply in their daily life. For example, a person cal learn about teamwork or be motivated in life to achieve their goals or even chase a dream. It Is a problem because reality television programs, are not exactly real life on camera.Rather, the shows are edited and scripted in being a melodramatic television show to make it more interesting and more exciting. The producers edit and script these to show to make It to have more conflict, more danger, more of negative things.. History has shown that when a mass of people can easily be controlled by a single person or a group of people that results to causing of grave harm. The influence of reality television characters, especially those who are teenagers, because they are influencing teenagers very effe ctively, especially with daring segments of the television programs.Especially, to think that this is a reality television show. Reality television is not really reality. Unluckily, many people think that It Is. These television shows draws hundreds, thousands, and even millions of viewers from all ages because It Is entertaining. It has been the focus of so much criticism because of doubtful honesty messages of some of the shows depict. Unrealistic expectations. The late novelist Kurt Vonnegut once described media in terms that may apply to reality shows.He explained how TV and movies have caused people to expect reality to be much more dramatic than it really is: â€Å"†¦ because we grew up surrounded by big dramatic story arcs in books and movies, we think our lives are supposed to be filled with huge ups and downs. So people pretend there is drama where there is none. † Nothing proves Vonnegut's theory like America's love for reality TV. Shows such as â€Å"The Real World† and â€Å"The Hills† are filled with over-dramatic fights and intrigue. But unlike books and movies before them, reality TV claims to be representative of real life.This helps people believe more than ever before that life should be full of dramatic ups and downs that don't really exist. Enjoying misfortunes for others. Waite also expresses the fear that reality shows such as â€Å"Temptation Island† bring out viewers' attraction to mortification. â€Å"Temptation Island† revolved around trying to get monogamous couples to be unfaithful. Waite says of heavy watchers of these sorts of shows, â€Å"They expect it's OK to humiliate and to be humiliated by others, instead of thinking there's something wrong with this behavior. † The worst human behavior.Psychologist George Gerbner and Larry Gross of the University of Pennsylvania developed the â€Å"cultivation theory,† which asserts that prolonged exposure to television can shape viewerà ¢â‚¬â„¢s concept of the world. Basically, the more television someone watches, the more he will believe the world is as it’s presented by the TV. I can see how this might apply to older generations who didn’t grow up in the Information Age. Take my grandpa, for example. He watches nothing but the news and he’s convinced the world is a violent and dangerous place. I’d probably think that, too, if all I watched were reports of thefts, shooting, and terrorism.I wonder if the â€Å"cultivation theory† applies to reality TV shows. If I did nothing but watch â€Å"Big Brother† all day, would I start to believe there were cameras scattered throughout my home and my family was conspiring to vote me out of the house? Voyeuristic Urges The idea that reality TV nourishes voyeuristic behavior sounds like a great argument. Who would want to raise a society of Peeping Toms? Thankfully, this criticism has no merit. Voyeurism is, by definition, â€Å"the p ractice of obtaining sexual gratification by looking at sexual objects or acts, especially secretively. † The key word here is secretively.All voyeuristic pleasure is removed if the person being watched knows she’s being watched. A threat to intelligence Reality TV critics claim that these shows pander to the ill-witted and somehow manage to make the rest of us dumber for watching. I don’t think it’s possible to lose brain cells or cognitive functioning simply from tuning into a TV show. I think a far greater concern for critics is the sense of superiority viewers derive from watching reality TV. The truth is many people watch these shows to feel better about their own lives. What does that say about our society’s ability to promote a healthy self-image?Entertainment Critics of reality TV argue that television should be used to education, inform, and enlighten viewers. I agree television is an excellent medium for teaching, decimating information, a nd promoting the arts, but it is also a vehicle for entertainment. It’s a way to peer into another world for amusement and fun. Television offers viewers a needed break from the daily pressures of life; it’s a healthy occupation for the mind. These are just some of the reasons why we are really decided to study about this topic. It Is a stepping stone for us for all the teenagers out there, especially with the secondary students here in SNFSS.This Is to prevent bad things to happen. And open up there eyes in what they know and see about reality television programs. It Is not that when we enjoy, what we see or what we do, you think that It Is right. But It’s not, sometimes, It’s really easier and more fun to the bad or wrong things, especially Now a days. Technology Is getting better and better, and the media invades the world, It conquers peoples mind and beliefs. The goal that we wanted to achieve in studying this topic Is to open everyone’s eyes in what reality television programs Is all about.We carry on this analysis and research because we are craving to know what are the positive and negative effects of TV programs on the values formation of the secondary students In SNFSS during SY 2012-2013, and the possible effects and feedback of reality TV programs. Theoretical Framework Kohlberg’s theory of Moral development, Is a theory based upon research and interviews with groups of young children. A series of moral dilemmas were presented to these participants and they were also interviewed to determine the reasoning behind their judgments of each scenario. Kohlberg as not interested so much In the answer to the question of whether Heinz was wrong or right, but In the reasoning of for each participant’s decision. The responses were then classified into various stages of reasoning in his theory of moral development. Level 1- Stage 1 (Obedience and Punishment) The earliest stage of moral development Is especially common in young children, but adults are also capable of expressing this type of reasoning. At this stage, children see rules as fixed and absolute. Obeying the rules Is important because It Is a means to avoid punishment.Stage 2 (Individualism and Exchange) Children and adults account for individual points of view and judge actions based on how they serve argued that the best course of action was the choice that best-served Heinz’s needs. Reciprocity Is possible at this point in moral development but only If It serves one’s own. Level 2-Conventional Morality; Stage 3(Interpersonal Relationships) Often referred to as the â€Å"good boy- good girl† orientation, this stage of moral development Is focused on living up to social expectations and roles.There Is an emphasis on conformity, being â€Å"nice†, and consideration of how choices influence relationships. Stage 4(Maintaining Social Order) At this stage of moral development, people begin to consider soc iety as a whole when making judgments. The focus Is on maintaining law and order by following the rules, doing one’s duty, and respecting authority. Level 3- Post Conventional Morality; Stage 5( Social contract and Individual Rights) At this stage, people began to account for the differing values, options and beliefs of other people. Roles of law are important for aintaining a society, but members of the society should agree upon these standards. Stage 6(Universal Principles) Kohlberg’s final level of moral reasoning Is based upon universal ethical principles and abstract reasoning. At this stage, people follow these internalized principles of justice, even If they conflict with law and rules. Conceptual Framework Input Throughput/Process Output Results of the survey form the secondary students. 1. Observation on the ongoing survey. Profile Variables: 1. Surveys about the given problems from Grade 7 to 4th year High school. . Comparisson of watching and not watching of reality television programs. Compare about the difference between the answers of the grade 7 and 3rd year, 2nd year and 4th year High school students. Surveys on 10 to 15 people Grade 7 and 3rd year HS 2nd year and 4th year HS Figure 2: Conceptual Framework of the study depicting the profile variables and the results of the survey from the secondary students The first box on our figure is the input. We have our profile variables, the first one Is having surveys about the given problems from Grade 7 to 4th year High school.And the second one Is the comparison of watching and not watching reality TV shows. These are the required or available data to be used in our surveys with the secondary students of SNFSS. The second box on our figure Is the throughput or the process. Our process would be like this. We will conduct a survey from 10 to 15 people of the grade 7 and 3rd year high school students and we will be observing and comparing It with the result of the survey of the students f rom the 2nd year and the 4th year High school. We will be comparing the differences between the 2 sets of batch of students.The third box on our figure Is the output and In It Is the results of the surveys. Hypothesis (Null Hypothesis) There Is no unnecessary effect of watching reality TV programs In the values formation of the secondary students of SNFSS during SY 2012-2013. Statement of the Problem 1. What Is the most commonly reality television show being watched by the secondary students of SNFSS (SY 2012-2013)? 2. How does It help you In your daily living in school or at home? 3. What are the advantages of watching different reality TV programs? 4. What are the disadvantages of watching different TV programs?Scope and Delimitation This study Is conducted and done to the secondary students of the Sto. Nino Formation and Science School during the school year 2012-2013 to know If there Is a unnecessary effect of watching reality TV programs In the values formation of the secondary students. Pinoy Big Brother Is one of the most famous reality TV show here In the Philippines, and next to It is the Survivor Philippines etc. Our main focus In our study Is to know the advantages and the disadvantages of reality TV programs In the Values formation of the secondary students here In SNFSS.